COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia Using SIR Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24191/jcrinn.v10i2.513Keywords:
COVID-19, SIR Model, Markov Chain Model, Mathematical Modelling, Basic Reproduction Number, Transition Probability MatrixAbstract
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact globally. Negative impacts include the total number of losses in overall population size and economic decline. This study focuses on applying the simple Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze COVID-19 cases in Malaysia for a time span of 100 days, from 1/5/2024 up to 8/8/2024. The key parts to gain the result can be divided into two which are data collection of daily COVID-19 cases in Malaysia from the website of Ministry of Health and solving the differential equations using R studio. From the SIR Model, the findings provide the estimation of transmission rate (𝛽), recovery rate (𝛾), and a basic reproduction number (), along with the graph of trends of COVID-19 in Malaysia for 100 days. From the values gained, this study aims to construct a Markov chain transition matrix to explain the disease spread more effectively.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Nur Nadiah Az-Zahraa, Nurul Najihah Mohamad (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
